April 9, 2020

SUGAR: Mexico sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.235 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 35,000 over last month. Analysis based on production through the first week of April supports increases in area over last month but lower sugarcane yield and about the same sucrose recovery as last month. Domestic deliveries and ending stocks, equal to 2.5 months of forecast domestic sugar use before the start of the 2020/21 sugarcane harvest, are unchanged. Exports outside of those shipments under license to the United States are increased to 39,187 MT on the pace to date. Exports to the United States are increased by 29,365 MT to 1.026 million.

Projected total U.S. supply for 2019/20 is increased by 546,884 short tons, raw value (STRV) on increased production and imports. All production changes are made on the basis of forecasts and/or data supplied by processors. Cane sugar production is increased by 26,460 STRV on more production expected in Florida partially offset by a reduction in Texas. Beet sugar production is reduced by 19,797 STRV on lower expected sugar from slicing and from the de-sugaring of molasses. TRQ imports are increased to reflect the USDA action announced on April 1 of increases to both the raw sugar and refined sugar TRQs. The raw sugar shortfall is increased to 84,092 STRV to reflect sugar not expected to enter the United States although allocated. Imports from Mexico are increased by 34,312 STRV. High-tier tariff imports are unchanged. There are no changes to use. Ending stocks are projected at 1.434 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.70 percent.

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