SUGAR: Mexico sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.200 million metric tons (MT), a reduction of 471,686 from last month. Analysis based on production through the end of February supports the following projections: area, 780,000 hectares; sugarcane yield, 63.66 MT/hectare; and sucrose recovery, 10.466 percent. Domestic deliveries and ending stocks equaling 2.5 months of forecast domestic sugar use before the start of the 2020/21 sugarcane harvest, are unchanged. Exports outside of those shipments under license to the United States are at 33,552 MT, an amount estimated by CONADESUCA that is equal to exports through February 23. Exports to the United States are reduced by 472,287 MT to 996,834.

Projected total U.S. supply for 2019/20 is reduced by 668,664 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower production and imports. Beet sugar production is forecast lower by 126,820 STRV at 4.317 million. The reduction is based on processors’ surveys of crop year production from sugarbeet slicing in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Imports from Mexico are reduced by 551,844 STRV to 1.164 million based on lower sugar supply availability in Mexico. This reduction is partially offset by a 50,000-STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports, raising the total to 150,000. This increase is based on import pace and on favorable margins between U.S. and world refined sugar prices. There are no changes to use. Ending stocks are projected at 887,559 STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 7.24 percent.