Current Supply and Demand

WASDE Report (June 11, 2020)

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2019/20 is increased 284,479 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 13.822 million based on an increase in estimated imports. Imports from Mexico are increased by 204,479 STRV on greater export supply availability. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 80,000 STRV to 230,000 on pace and on favorable margins between U.S. and world sugar prices. Deliveries for human consumption for 2019/20 are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.050 million based on an initial analysis of the effects of pandemic lockdowns on the demand for sugar. Deliveries for human consumption for 2020/21 are unchanged at 12.125 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are residually calculated at 1.632 million STRV, an increase of 359,479. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is at 13.4 percent, up from 10.4 percent last month. For 2020/21 the increase in beginning stocks is exactly offset by a decrease in projected imports from Mexico. There are no other changes made for 2020/21. The Secretary of Agriculture has not yet announced additional quantities of specialty sugar beyond the WTO minimum quantity. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2020/21 remains at 12.0 percent.

Mexico production for 2019/20 is estimated at 5.230 million metric tons (MT). This is an increase of 105,000 MT on increases in field and factory yields only partially offset by lower area harvested as the production campaign winds down. Deliveries of domestically produced sugar to the IMMEX program are reduced by 70,000 MT based on reporting by the FAS Mexico City Post. Exports to the U.S. market are increased by 175,000 MT to 1.074 million on the increase of exportable supply. There are no changes for the 2020/21 Mexico sugar balance. Ending stocks for both 2020/21 and 2019/20 are set equal to 2.5 months of forecast domestic sugar deliveries before the start of the succeeding sugarcane harvest. Although total exports for 2020/21 are unchanged, exports to the U.S. market are reduced by 307,245 MT and exports to third-country destinations are increased by the same amount.

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