May 12, 2020

SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2020/21 is projected at 33.672 million tons with yield forecast at 30.11 tons/acre. Slower-than-average planting progress in the Upper Midwest has dampened prospects for significant gains in the national yield over last year. Assuming average levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production from this crop is projected at 4.965 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is estimated to fall slightly from last month due to processors’ reporting. Cane sugar production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.040 million STRV. Production in Florida and Texas are expected to be close to prior year levels. Louisiana production is projected higher at 1.800 million STRV on a return to trend yield and recovery.
Imports for 2020/21 are projected at 3.461 million STRV. TRQ imports are projected at 1.395 million STRV with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings. Projected 2020/21 TRQ imports of specialty sugar include only the WTO minimum quantity as additional quantities have not been announced by the Secretary of Agriculture. The WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall for 2020/21 is projected at 99,208 STRV. High-tier tariff imports for 2020/21 are projected at 50,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico for 2020/21 are projected at 1.660 million STRV. Imports from Mexico for 2019/20 are reduced by 148,840 STRV to 1.050 million on lower production in Mexico. Deliveries to domestic users for 2020/21 are projected at 12.320 million STRV, flat with levels estimated for 2019/20. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are residually projected at 1.468 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.97 percent, up from 10.38 percent in 2019/20.

Mexico production for 2020/21 is set at 6.100 million metric tons (MT), assuming a return to normal weather and area harvested projected at about the same level as this year. Production for 2019/20 is reduced by 110,000 MT to 5.125 million, mainly on reduced area for harvest and below-average yields and sucrose recovery. Deliveries of high fructose corn syrup for 2020/21 are projected at 1.493 million MT, the same level as now estimated for 2019/20. Per capita sweetener deliveries for 2020/21 for human consumption are projected at the same level as in 2019/20, implying sugar deliveries at 4.140 million MT. IMMEX deliveries for 2020/21 from domestic and imported sources are projected at 435,000 MT, the same as estimated for 2019/20. Ending stocks for both 2020/21 and 2019/20 are set equal to 2.5 months of forecast domestic sugar deliveries before the start of the succeeding sugarcane harvest. Total exports are residually projected but exports to the United States are projected at the expected level of U.S. Needs as defined in the amended Suspension Agreements.

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Feb 6-8, 2020
Orlando, FL

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Reservation Center at 407-566-5600.

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