February 11, 2020

SUGAR: Mexico sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.672 million metric tons (MT), a reduction of 99,994 from last month. This forecast matches the survey-based estimate made by CONADESUCA on February 5. Imports and domestic deliveries are unchanged. Ending stocks are increased slightly to reflect 2.5 months of forecast domestic sugar use before the start of the 2020/21 sugarcane harvest. These changes of 101,388 MT flow through to a reduction of forecast exports. Exports outside of those shipments under license to the United States are reduced to 32,951 MT, an amount estimated by CONADESUCA that is equal to exports through January 26. Exports to the United States are reduced by 94,296 MT to 1.469 million.

Total U.S. supply for 2019/20 is reduced by 33,694 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower forecast imports. Imports from Mexico are reduced 110,180 STRV to 1.717 million. TRQ imports are increased by 70,486 STRV to 1.674 million. This increase reflects the USTR reallocation of unused country-specific quota allocations for the fiscal year 2019/20 WTO raw sugar TRQ announced on February 6. The resulting raw sugar WTO shortfall is projected at 40,000 STRV. There are no changes to use. Ending stocks are projected at 1.516 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.36 percent, down from 12.69 percent last month.

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