November 9, 2021

SUGAR: U.S. beet sugar production for 2020/21 is increased by 60,682 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.092 million on higher-than-expected beet sugar production in September. Beet sugar production for 2021/22 is increased by 65,544 STRV to 5.413 million on processors’ forecast of beet sugar production from slicing (increase of 112,372 STRV) less adjustments made for August-September production in 2021 and projected 2022 (decrease of 46,829 STRV). Cane sugar production in Louisiana is decreased by 20,021 STRV on a lower crop yield forecast by NASS, a slightly lower sucrose recovery forecast by processors, and adjustments made for September production in 2021 and 2022.

Imports for 2020/21 are reduced by 56,719 STRV to 3.195 million on final trade data for September 2021 from U.S. Customs and Border Protection and U.S. Census. On October 29, 2021 the USDA extended the period for the entry of 2020/21 raw cane TRQ sugar to December 31, 2021, and on November 3, USTR announced a reallocation of 29,442 metric tons, raw value from countries stating they do not intend to export their assigned quota. It is estimated that an additional 19,842 STRV will enter as a consequence of these two actions. The 2020/21 raw sugar shortfall decreases from 74,957 STRV last month to 55,116. Hightier tariff imports for 2021/22 are increased by 25,000 STRV after the importation of high-tier tariff raw sugar in October by a major U.S. refiner.

Sugar use for 2021/22 is unchanged from last month but is reduced for 2020/21 by 55,863 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption for 2020/21 are estimated at 12.109 million STRV, a decrease of 90,835 and arguably attributable to challenges faced by refiners after Hurricane Ida. Cane sugar deliveries for September were 9.4 percent below the average of the previous 5 years and at the lowest level since 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are reported in Sweetener Market Data at 1,728,209 STRV for an ending stocks-to ratio of 14.0 percent. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are residually projected at 1,765,294 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent.

Mexico sugar production for 2021/22 is projected at 5.979 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 39,000 over last month due to good moisture in most growing areas. The USDA forecast is about 137,500 MT less than the CONADESUCA forecast made by authorities in Mexico due mainly to differing forecasts of factory yields. Deliveries for 2021/22 are down from last month by 13,962 MT on a continuing decline in human consumption only partially offset by increased deliveries to the IMMEX program for the export of sugar-containing products. Ending stocks are reduced by only a small amount needed to meet use in 2022/23 before the start of sugar production in mid-November of 2022. Exports are residually increased by 99,314 MT to 1.777 million.

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