SUGAR: USDA projects an increase in 2021/22 U.S. sugar use combined with a reduction in supply to decrease ending
stocks to 1,692,320 short tons, raw value (STRV) for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent. U.S. sugar deliveries
for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV to 12,300,000 based on strong to-date deliveries by beet
processors and on higher-than-expected direct consumption imports though the end of January. U.S. sugar supply for
2021/22 is decreased 26,152 STRV as decreases in sugar production are only partially offset by increases in imports.
Florida sugar production is decreased 45,059 STRV to 1,959,570 based on lower sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery
from processors’ analyses of the effect of late January freezes on the crop. Beet sugar production is decreased 12,183
STRV to 3,995,680 on processors’ forecast of lower sucrose extraction and an increase in beet pile shrink. Imports are
increased by 31,091 STRV to 3,043,041. Raw sugar TRQ imports are increased by 20,591 STRV based on updated FAS
analysis of expected TRQ shortfall. High-tier tariff sugar imports are increased by 25,000 STRV to 175,000. High-tier tariff
imports are estimated at 126,272 STRV through the end of February. Raw sugar imports constitute about 62 percent of
the total. Since the December 2021 sugar WASDE, the USDA has been projecting monthly high-tier tariff refined sugar
imports at about 7,250 STRV. Extending this projection across the remaining seven months of the fiscal year yields the
175,000 STRV projection. Imports from Mexico are projected at 1,050,212 STRV, a reduction of 14,500.
The net change for the Mexico 2021/22 sugar supply and use balance is a small 4,000 metric ton (MT) reduction in
imports accompanied by a reduction of the same amount in exports. Exports to the United States for 2021/22 are
projected at 898,808 MT, a decrease of 12,410 from last month. Calculated U.S. Needs implied by the March 2022 U.S.
Sugar WASDE as set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements is 887,843 MT (1,037,400 STRV). There is an additional
export amount of 10,965 MT (12,812 STRV) from the 2020/21 export allocation to Mexico that was permitted by the
U.S. Department of Commerce to enter the United States after September 30. Exports other than to the United States
under export license increase by 8,410 MT to 852,025.