Jun 9, 2023

SUGAR: Mexico production for 2022/23 is estimated at 5.230 million metric tons (MT), down 155,000 from last month on a low sugarcane yield below 60.0 MT/hectare (3.2 standard deviations below the preceding 9-year average) and sucrose recovery below 11.0 percent (0.9 standard deviations below). There are 10 factories operating as of May 27 and most are expected to end their season soon. Half of the supply reduction is expected to lower deliveries to the IMMEX re-export program to 272,500 MT, of which 247,500 is expected from domestic production and 25,000 from imports. At this point import data from Mexico show imports through March only at 10,867 MT while other countries reported exports to Mexico are at 25,772 MT. The current 25,000 MT estimate for imports is based on imports reported for 2021/22 but it should be noted that the preceding 5-year average was 50,742 MT with 82,287 MT supplied by non-USMCA countries in 2017/18. The other half of the supply reduction is expected to lower exports by 67,917 MT to 1.002 million and ending stocks by 9,583 MT to 879,523. CONADESUCA reports exports not under license to the United States to date at 18,291 MT, implying that exports to the United States are down 77,921 from last month to 984,096 MT. Raw sugar with a polarity of less than 99.2 percent is estimated at about 74 percent of this amount (that is, 728,231 MT).

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